2017-03-07 13:08

我们已经看到了各种财务比率的技术故障,以及使用它们作为投资决策工具的难度。比较不同时期的财务结果有其自身的缺点,因为没有独立的框架来评估公司目前的业绩是好是坏。必须小心,当比较结果不同公司之间的产品,规模是非常重要的,例如市场份额等,公司会有一个显著的市场份额(营业额)相比,B公司的净利润却较小,由于其更大的运营成本。这种差异可能会影响错误的投资模式和决策。 比率分析的另一个主要缺点是,会计师沉迷于创造性的会计技术,从公布的财务报表计算的比率显示有利数字。例如,出售和回购协议操纵流动性数字和表外融资扭曲的资本回报率,从而影响公司的杠杆作用。 因此,必须对新的财务报表进行评估,以适应新的市场条件。一个这样的技术是由奥特曼教授发明了一种新的技术被称为Z值了。[ 9 ]得分是一个统计模型,采用五种不同配比为预测一个公司的健康。[ 10 ]得分是用来预测破产的企业用传统的财务比率统计方法称为多元判别分析。Z值是在预测它在未来两年企业失败预测未来一年的百分之80是90%的准确和精确。


We have seen the technical failure of various financial ratios and the difficulty in using them as a tool to make investment decisions. Comparing financial results from different periods has its own drawbacks because there are no independent frameworks to assess whether the company’s current results are good or bad. It is very important that care must be taken when comparing results between two different companies in terms of products, size, market share etc. For example, company A may have a significant market share (turnover) compared to company B’s but smaller net profit due to its bigger operational costs. Such discrepancies can influence wrong investment patterns and decisions.
Another major drawback of ratio analysis is that accountants indulge in creative accounting techniques where ratios calculated from published financial statements show favourable figures. For example, sale and repurchase agreements manipulate liquidity figures and off-balance sheet finance which distorts return on capital employed and thereby influencing company’s gearing.
It is therefore essential that new approach to assessing financial statement must be devised and changed to suit to new market conditions. One such technique was developed by Professor Altman who devised a new technique popularly known as the Z-Score.[9] The Z-Score is a statistical model that incorporates the use of five different ratios which serve to predict the health of a firm.[10] The Z-Score is used to predict bankruptcy of the business using traditional financial ratios and statistical method known as the Multiple Discriminant Analysis. The Z-score is considered to be 90 % accurate in forecasting business failure one year into the future and 80 percent accurate in forecasting it two years into the future.